The
paper by Bayarri and Degroot contributed to two mail prediction:
1-as
an expert’s decision weight approaches zero (very small) his/her optimal
prediction is to report a large number for one option.
2-as
an expert’s decision weight approaches 1, one should never report probability
zero to any option.
In both
cases, the experts try to maximize their posterior decision weight. This suggests
that, in an interactive environment, a participant with low reliability should
be overconfident about his decision in order to maximize his/her influence. In
this point of view, overconfidence is an optimal behavior.
Here
the question is that do people try to maximize their influence? If this is the
case, then we would expect that people get reward when their opinion is
accepted as group’s opinion regardless of the outcome of the decision. It is
also could be true that they try to maximize a synthesis of accuracy and influence.
For example in reinforcement learning paradigm, the cumulative reward an agent receive
is a linear combination of being correct (accuracy) and being selected
(influence). It is there a task we could separate these two kinds of rewards?
we know that witnessing that your opinion is confirmed by an expert is rewarding (http://www.cell.com/current-biology/abstract/S0960-9822(10)00595-6). So this could be taken to predict that being influential is rewarding.
ReplyDeleteOne interesting aspect of this point of view is that it also allows for looking at interactive decision making in situations where "correct" outcome does not necessarily exist (say if you are a movie critique, your influence on others is important)